Market outlook

Coronado Commercial Real Estate Outlook: What the Published Numbers Show

The sources used here do not include a Coronado retail or industrial vacancy series, so this outlook leans on what public bodies and trade sources do print: the City of Coronado budget, hotel and meeting figures relayed by Coronado Times, one Kidder Mathews office row, a Caltrans traffic count, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Navy. This page lays those out with the publisher named beside each figure, then lists figures not found in the sources reviewed.

How much does Coronado's City budget depend on hotels, property and sales tax?

The City of Coronado FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget says property tax, transient occupancy tax (TOT) and sales tax together generate approximately 88.5% of General Fund revenues.[1] Ask which of the three taxes a given property, tenant or business touches most directly.

Coronado Times reported in June 2026 that the City collects a 10% transient occupancy tax for each hotel room occupied.[2] The City budget itself gives revenue amounts rather than the rate, so the rate is attributed to Coronado Times here.

The same budget reports that actual TOT receipts for FY 2023-24 were $21.4 million, well above the $16.5 million that had been budgeted while the Hotel del Coronado was under renovation.[1] For FY 2025-26 it forecasts General Fund TOT at $22 million, described as conservative.[1] Coronado Times adds that TOT revenue is projected to exceed $23 million in fiscal year 2027.[2]

Hotel tax (TOT) actuals and forecasts for the City of Coronado
PeriodFigurePublisher
FY 2023-24 actual TOT receipts$21.4 million (budgeted: $16.5 million)City of Coronado
FY 2025-26 General Fund TOT forecast$22 millionCity of Coronado
FY 2027 projected TOTMore than $23 millionCoronado Times

What do property tax, sales tax and assessed value say about the base?

The City budget projects all-funds property tax to rise $2.7 million, or 6.20%, to $45.9 million in FY 2025-26.[1] It budgets sales tax at $5.1 million, up 5.0% year over year.[1] The sales tax budget is the smaller of the two figures.

Secured assessed valuation for 2024 was $11,864,074,358, or about $11.86 billion, according to the City budget.[1] Coronado Times reported FY 2025-26 General Fund revenue projected at $82.9 million, up $7.5 million, with expenditures at $82 million in a balanced budget that does not use reserves, and a year-end balance that includes $39.2 million in reserves.[3]

Why it matters: if you are weighing a Coronado purchase or lease, compare the budget's own wording on the three taxes with your underwriting. If a property's income depends on hotel guests or visitor spending, ask how that income would be affected if the TOT line came in above or below the budget, as it did in FY 2023-24.

How many hotel rooms does Coronado have, and how busy are they?

The City's statistical section lists 2,113 hotel rooms for all hotels and motels.[1] It is an undated profile figure, so treat it as a City count rather than a current inventory, and do not add new rooms to it without a source. Coronado Times separately reported that the Victorian restoration at the Hotel del Coronado yielded an additional 37 rooms; the sources used here do not show whether the City count includes those rooms.

Coronado Times reported that Coronado resorts counted 424,000 occupied room nights in 2025.[2] Citing Discover Coronado studies, it also reported overall hotel occupancy of 66.1% in calendar year 2022 and again in 2023.[4][5] No later occupancy percentage appears in the sources used for this page.

What do the group-meeting figures say about Coronado's hotel demand?

The following figures cover group meetings. These are Discover Coronado figures as relayed by Coronado Times, not City data. The table lists each year as that newspaper reported it.

Coronado Times reported that most meetings take place in September, October, January and February, and that Cvent ranked Coronado Island 42nd out of 14,000 cities evaluated.[6] The 2024 drop in attendees came while the Hotel del Coronado restoration limited capacity, per the same report.

Group-meeting figures reported by Coronado Times from Discover Coronado
YearAttendeesOther figure reported
2022Over 74,000Hotel occupancy 66.1%
2023More than 77,000$8.4 million local tax revenue; $170.3 million economic impact
202455,792$122 million economic impact, including $84.3 million visitor spending with local merchants

What does the Kidder Mathews report show for Coronado office space?

Kidder Mathews publishes quarterly San Diego office research, and its tables include a Coronado row. The second quarter 2026 report lists Coronado at 111,541 square feet of inventory and 10.1% vacancy.[7] The first quarter 2026 report lists the same 111,541 square feet at 14.5% vacancy.[8]

Because the row is one line in a countywide San Diego report, quote only the inventory and vacancy shown and do not infer rent or absorption for Coronado from it. Before reading a trend into the two vacancy figures, ask what tenant activity data exists for the buildings in question and which buildings the row covers.

Kidder Mathews office table, Coronado submarket row
QuarterInventory (SF)Vacancy
1Q 2026111,54114.5%
2Q 2026111,54110.1%

How many vehicles cross the bridge to Coronado, and how many people live there?

A Caltrans report to the California Transportation Commission in January 2025 says approximately 70,000 vehicles travel across the San Diego-Coronado Bay Bridge daily, and calls it the primary route between the City of San Diego and the City of Coronado.[9] Ask whether the vehicle count says anything about the hours and the block where your storefront would operate.

The U.S. Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates put Coronado city at 22,435 in 2020, 20,353 in 2024 and 21,094 in 2025.[10] Cite the vintage and year whenever you use one of these numbers. The City budget separately lists 2,814 residents age 16 and over in the Armed Forces, a 2020 Census figure.[1]

How does the Navy shape Coronado's commercial demand?

Commander, Navy Installations Command describes Naval Base Coronado as a consortium of nine Navy installations that accommodates the requirements of 17 squadrons, three aircraft carriers and four SEAL Teams.[11] It describes the Naval Amphibious Base as lying south of the main residential and commercial portions of the city.[11]

The sources used here give no Navy payroll, spending or lease figure for Coronado, and no North Island acreage, so this page does not estimate the base's effect on retail or housing demand. If a deal in your plan assumes service-member customers, ask for current, sourced data instead of relying on the headcounts above.

What is happening with the Coronado Ferry Landing lease?

The Port of San Diego describes the Ferry Landing as an approximately 38,000-square-foot specialty retail shopping center with two parking lots, a public ferry pier and a public boat dock, and says it was under a 40-year lease with PCA scheduled to expire June 30, 2026.[12] Coronado Times reported that the 13-acre landing hosts 24 subtenants.[13]

In June 2026 Coronado Times described a proposal for a 35-year lease in which PCA's rent would be tied to a percentage of the center's sales, with a minimum payment of $600,000 to start, and in which PCA would have 12 months to meet preconditions before signing.[13] It also reported Port staff pointing to roughly $17.5 million in deferred maintenance and that the Port cannot sell public trust land.[13] An earlier Coronado Times article said PCA had planned a $20 million renovation.[14]

The sources used here do not show the signed final terms. If you are considering a subtenancy, ask the Port of San Diego for the executed lease and its preconditions.

Which Coronado commercial real estate numbers were not found in the sources reviewed?

Be wary of anyone quoting precise Coronado figures for the items below. None appears in the sources used for this page.

  • A Coronado retail vacancy rate or asking rent series for Orange Avenue or the Ferry Landing.
  • An industrial vacancy or rent series for Coronado.
  • Rent, absorption or sales-price data for the Coronado office row; the Kidder Mathews table gives inventory and vacancy only.
  • A hotel occupancy percentage later than 2023, or average daily rate and revenue per available room.
  • North Island acreage and any Navy spending figure tied to Coronado storefronts.
  • The executed Ferry Landing lease terms after the June 2026 Port action.
  • County data: anything labeled San Diego County is not Coronado and should not be used as if it were.

If you are comparing a Coronado hotel, storefront, office or Ferry Landing space, write down the property type, the numbers you still need and the source you would accept for each.

Prepare a note about what you are weighing

Questions people ask

How much of Coronado's General Fund comes from hotel, property and sales tax?

The City of Coronado FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget says property tax, transient occupancy tax and sales tax together generate approximately 88.5% of General Fund revenues. If a property you are weighing leans on hotel guests or visitor spending, compare it with the budget's hotel tax line.

What was Coronado's hotel tax revenue?

The City of Coronado budget reports actual TOT receipts of $21.4 million in FY 2023-24, above the $16.5 million budgeted, and forecasts $22 million for FY 2025-26. Coronado Times reports a projection above $23 million for fiscal year 2027. Compare each figure by fiscal year before using it in a model.

How many hotel rooms are in Coronado?

The City of Coronado budget statistical section lists 2,113 hotel rooms across all hotels and motels, as an undated profile figure. Coronado Times reported 37 additional rooms from the Hotel del Coronado Victorian restoration. The sources used here do not show whether the City count includes those rooms, so ask which count a source used.

What is the Coronado office vacancy rate?

Kidder Mathews lists the Coronado submarket at 111,541 square feet with 10.1% vacancy in its 2Q26 San Diego report and 14.5% in 1Q26. It is one row inside a countywide report, so ask what tenant activity data exists and avoid inferring rents from that row.

How many vehicles cross the Coronado bridge?

A Caltrans report to the California Transportation Commission in January 2025 says approximately 70,000 vehicles travel across the bridge daily. The same report calls it the primary route between San Diego and Coronado. If you rely on visitor traffic, ask whether the count reflects your hours of operation.

Is there a Coronado retail or industrial vacancy rate?

No Coronado retail or industrial vacancy or rent series appears in the City, Census, Navy, Caltrans or news sources used here. If someone quotes one, ask for the publisher, period and boundary, and confirm it covers the City of Coronado and not San Diego County.

Sources

  1. City of Coronado FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget, City of Coronado, FY 2025-26. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  2. Hotel visitation drives $500,000 investment in community, Coronado Times, 2026-06-17. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  3. Coronado General Fund budget coverage, Coronado Times, 2025-05-25. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  4. Discover Coronado 2022 study coverage, Coronado Times (citing Discover Coronado), 2023-02-28. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  5. Discover Coronado 2023 report coverage, Coronado Times (citing Discover Coronado), 2024-03-11. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  6. Discover Coronado 2024 meetings coverage, Coronado Times (citing Discover Coronado), 2025-05-30. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  7. San Diego office market research, 2Q26, Kidder Mathews, 2026-Q2. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  8. San Diego office market research, 1Q26, Kidder Mathews, 2026-Q1. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  9. San Diego-Coronado Bay Bridge report to the California Transportation Commission, Caltrans via California Transportation Commission, 2025-01. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  10. Vintage 2025 subcounty population estimates (sub-est2025_6), U.S. Census Bureau, 2020, 2024, 2025. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  11. Naval Base Coronado, Commander, Navy Installations Command, 2025 web capture. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  12. Port approves lease deal and renovation plans (Ferry Landing), Port of San Diego, 2026-06. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  13. Coronado Ferry Landing could get a 35-year lease, Coronado Times, 2026-06-21. Accessed October 13, 2026.
  14. Port to end lease at Coronado Ferry Landing, Coronado Times, 2025-10-30. Accessed October 13, 2026.